SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 16
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(23) Wake Forest (18-5, 12-8 ATS) at Virginia Tech (20-4, 10-8 ATS)
The Demon Deacons, who cracked the Top 25 this week for the first time all season, go after their fifth straight win and cover when they take on ACC rival Virginia Tech at Cassell Coliseum.
Wake Forest knocked off Georgia Tech on Saturday 75-64 as a three-point home favorite, avenging an ugly 21-point road loss to the Yellow Jackets on Jan. 28. Since that setback, the Demon Deacons are on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll, with a trio of ACC home wins (over Miami, Boston College and Georgia Tech) and a 64-61 overtime victory at Virginia as a four-point underdog. Wake Forest is on a 6-1 SU and ATS roll (the only loss coming at Georgia Tech), and it is 6-4 SU and ATS on the road this year.
Like their opponent tonight, the Hokies have rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 61-55 home victory over Virginia, though they came up a whisker short of covering as 6½-point favorite. Virginia Tech has won seven of its last eight games, going 6-1 in ACC action. Also, the Hokies are 13-0 at home, where they outscore opponents by nearly 20 points per game (73.1-54.8).
Virginia Tech has controlled this rivalry of late, winning two in a row and five of the last six meetings overall. The Hokies are 5-1 ATS during this stretch, including four consecutive covers going back to March 2007. Last year these teams met once at Wake Forest, and Va-Tech prevailed 78-71 as a 13-point road underdog. With that result, the visitor is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series meetings.
The Demon Deacons, in addition to cashing in four straight games (all against winning teams) and six of their last seven, are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Tuesday, and the SU winner has covered the number in each of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech started the season with four straight non-covers but has since gone 10-4 ATS in lined contests (5-2 ATS at home). The Hokies are also on pointspread surges of 4-0 after a non-cover, 7-3 on Tuesday and 9-4 against winning teams.
Wake Forest is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall (all in the ACC), 6-1 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 6-0 when facing winning teams. The Hokies have also stayed low in their last four games overall and their last four at home. However, the over has cashed in each of the last three battles between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas Tech (16-8, 11-7 ATS) at (22) Baylor (19-5, 11-5-1 ATS)
Baylor, which has won back-to-back games by two points each, guns for its third victory in a row when it entertains the Red Raiders at the Ferrell Center in a Big 12 battle.
Texas Tech’s modest two-game SU and ATS winning streak was halted in Saturday’s 67-65 home loss to Texas A&M as a one-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are just 4-6 (5-5 ATS) since the conference season began five weeks ago, but in their most recent road game last Tuesday, they knocked off Oklahoma 72-71 as a six-point underdog. Prior to that, they had lost their first four league road games by margins of 29, 26, 12 and 15 points.
The Bears followed Wednesday’s 55-53 win at Nebraska as a two-point road chalk with Saturday’s 64-62 victory over Missouri, falling short of cashing as a four-point home favorite. Baylor has won four of its last five games and six of its last night, but it has yet to post three straight Big 12 wins. At the Ferrell Center this season, the Bears are 12-1 (4-2 ATS in lined contests), outscoring opponents by nearly 18 ppg (79-61.2).
Texas Tech ended a three-game losing streak to Baylor last year with an 83-76 victory as a 4½-point home underdog, a month after falling at Baylor 73-61 as a 13-point road pup. The Red Raiders have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, but while the underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 series clashes, Tech is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 trips to Baylor.
Even after coming up short against Texas A&M on Saturday, Texas Tech is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven games (all in the Big 12, and all against winning teams), but the Raiders have failed to cover in 14 of their last 19 Tuesday contests. Meanwhile, Baylor is on ATS upticks of 11-4-1 overall and 5-2 at home.
Texas Tech carries “over” trends of 36-16-2 overall, 19-7 on the road, 14-6 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a SU defeat. Likewise, the Bears are on “over” surges of 9-3 overall, 8-2 in Big 12 games this season, 6-2 on Tuesday, 7-1 after a SU win and 5-1 against winning teams. Finally, six of the last seven series meetings in this rivalry have hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BAYLOR and OVER
(2) Kentucky (24-1, 12-11 ATS) at Mississippi State (18-7, 11-8-1 ATS)
Kentucky hits the highway for just the second time since Jan. 26 when it heads south to Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville for an SEC tussle with the Bulldogs.
Since suffering their first and only loss of the season at South Carolina on Jan. 26, the Wildcats have ripped off five straight wins (3-2 ATS), with four of those coming at home. Most recently, Kentucky topped Tennessee 73-62 on Saturday, extending the lead down the stretch to barely cover as a 9½-point home favorite. That continued a trend in which Kentucky has alternated ATS wins and losses in 11 consecutive contests, including all 10 of its SEC games.
Mississippi State rebounded from a 1-4 slump – which knocked the team out of the Top 25 – with back-to-back SEC home wins last week over rival Ole Miss (71-63 on Thursday) and Auburn (85-75 in overtime on Saturday). The Bulldogs cashed as a four-point chalk against Ole Miss, but pushed as a 10-point favorite against Auburn. Still, they’re perfect at home in SEC games (5-0, 2-2-1 ATS), averaging 76.4 ppg.
Kentucky’s most recent road trip ended with an 81-55 destruction of LSU as an 11-point chalk two Saturdays ago. The Wildcats are 7-1 away from Rupp Arena this year (5-3 ATS), averaging 78.8 ppg on 48 percent shooting while allowing 68 ppg (38.4 percent).
Since losing to Rider 88-74 as a 15-point home favorite in the season-opener, Mississippi State is has won 12 in a row at Humphrey Coliseum (4-2-1 ATS in lined games). Including the stunning loss to Rider, the Bulldogs are outscoring visitors by an average of 16 ppg (78.5-62.5) and outshooting them 47.1 percent to 36.8 percent.
Mississippi State has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS) after losing the previous five contests (1-2-2 ATS). In last year’s lone battle, the Bulldogs went to Rupp Arena and shocked Kentucky 66-57 as 10½-point road underdog. The pup has cashed in each of the last four meetings, with MSU going 3-1 ATS during this mini-stretch.
The Wildcats have covered in five of their last seven on the road, but with their recent 11-game string of alternating ATS wins and losses, they’re now 0-5 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover. Mississippi State is on pointspread runs of 3-1-1 overall (all in the SEC), 6-2-1 at home and 13-6 against winning teams, but the ‘Dogs are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday affairs.
The over is 11-5 in Kentucky’s last 16 games overall and 4-1 in the Bulldogs’ last four after a victory, but MSU has stayed below the total in five of its last seven overall (all in the SEC). Also, the under is 3-1 in the last four Wildcats-Bulldogs matchups.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSISSIPPI
NBA
Dallas (32-20, 21-31 ATS) at Oklahoma City (30-21, 32-19 ATS)
Kevin Durant hopes to continue his incredible scoring barrage when he leads the red-hot Thunder against the Mavericks in a key Western Conference matchup at the Ford Center.
Dallas comes out of the All-Star break in a 2-5 slump, and it has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games and 17 of its last 26. The Mavericks limped into the break with an ugly 127-91 loss at the Nuggets a week ago tonight, falling way short as a seven-point underdog. During its 2-5 funk, Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway.
Contrary to the Mavericks, Oklahoma City took a six-game winning streak into the All-Star break. The first three wins were at home (2-1 ATS), with the last three coming on the road (3-0 ATS), including Thursday’s 89-77 rout of Portland as a 1½-point chalk. Going back to Dec. 23, the Thunder have won 17 of their last 24 games, and they’re 17-8 ATS in their last 25. They’re also 9-3 in their last 12 at home (6-6 ATS).
Durant scored 33 points and had 11 rebounds in the 12-point win over the Blazers, and the third-year pro has now tallied 25 points or more in 25 straight games.
Dallas has taken the first two meetings this year, including a 100-86 victory as a two-point road favorite in Oklahoma City on Dec. 16. However, that’s the Mavericks’ only spread-cover in the last seven series clashes (all as an underdog).
The Mavericks are in pointspread freefalls of 7-19 overall (1-8 last nine), 2-5 on the road, 7-19 against Western Conference teams, 0-6 against the Northwest Division, 0-7 when coming off three or more days of rest, 0-6 on Tuesday and 0-4 against winning teams. The only positive: a 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven as an underdog of less than five points.
On the flip side, Oklahoma City is riding ATS hot streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 6-0 when laying less than five points, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 9-0 versus winning teams, 5-1 after three or more days rest and 35-16-1 on Tuesday. Also, the Thunder’s 32-19 ATS record this season is tied with Atlanta for best in the NBA.
Dallas is on “over” surges of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 as an underdog, 14-5 as a road pup, 9-3 against the Western Conference and 5-1 versus Northwest Division squads. Oklahoma City is 8-1-1 “over” in its last 10 on Tuesday, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven against the Western Conference and 13-6-1 in its last 20 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams and 9-1-1 in the last 11 clashes when playing on the Thunder’s home court.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Utah (32-19, 30-18-1 ATS) at Houston (27-24, 24-27 ATS)
The Jazz, who closed out the first half of the season strong, return to the court when they visit the Rockets at the Toyota Center.
Utah had a 10-game overall and 10-game home winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 96-81 loss to the Lakers as a 5½-point home chalk. Still, the Jazz are 14-3 in their last 17 games, going 12-2-3 ATS. During this stretch they’re 4-2 on the road (5-0-1 ATS). Prior to getting shut down by the Lakers six days ago, Utah had scored more than 100 points in 11 straight games and 13 of 14, including 109 or more nine times.
The Rockets come out of the All-Star break having lost six of their last nine games (2-7 ATS), and they enter tonight off consecutive defeats to Philadelphia (102-95 as a 5½-point home favorite) and Miami (99-66 as a 5½-point road underdog). In last Tuesday’s ugly loss to the Heat – easily its worst of the season – Houston shot just 30.2 percent from the field, going 4-for-18 from three-point range.
These teams have met just once this season, way back on Nov. 2, and the Rockets rolled 113-96 in Salt Lake City as an eight-point road underdog. Prior to that, the host had won seven in a row in this rivalry (4-3 ATS) going back to a 2008 playoff series. However, the Jazz have covered in six of their last eight trips to the Toyota Center.
Utah is on a slew of positive pointspread surges, including 12-2-3 overall, 6-0-1 on the highway, 9-2-2 as a favorite, 19-6-1 as a chalk of less than five points, 5-1 as a road chalk of five points or less, 9-2-2 against Western Conference foes, 36-17 against the Southwest Division, 12-5 when coming off three or more days of rest, 15-5-3 versus winning teams, 16-5 after a SU defeat and 9-1 after a non-cover.
The Rockets are on ATS runs of 6-0 as a home underdog (4-0 as a home ‘dog of less than five minutes) and 14-4 after a double-digit loss. On the flip side, Houston is in pointspread funks of 3-11 overall, 1-9 at home, 1-6 after a SU loss, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 versus Northwest Division opponents.
The under is 7-0 for Utah after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 for Utah after a non-cover, 5-2 for Houston after a double-digit defeat and 7-3 for Houston as an underdog. Conversely, the over is on surges of 5-0 for the Jazz on the road, 4-0-1 for the Jazz as a road favorite, 5-1 for the Jazz on Tuesday, 8-3 for Utah against the Western Conference and 7-3 for the Rockets at home.
Lastly, four of the last six clashes between these squads have gone over the total, including the last two in Houston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH
